UK Rate Watch
PREVIEWWhere UK interest rates are, and where the market prices them to go — read directly from the Bank of England's OIS (SONIA-swap) curve, daily gilt yields and the latest ONS inflation and wage prints. UK fixed mortgages are priced off these same swap rates.
Updated 7 min ago · curve as of 2026-06-30 · sources: Bank of England, ONS
Market-implied path of the short rate
Average rate the OIS curve implies over each forward segment. This is the market's collective forecast — a fixed mortgage already embeds it.
Right now the market prices NO cuts — the short rate is priced to drift HIGHER (1y-avg 3.91% vs Bank Rate 3.75%). The 2y–5y swap slope is +0.05pp, so a 5-year fix is priced barely dearer than a 2-year.
What's moving now — daily 5y gilt yield
The monthly OIS curve lags; the daily 5-year gilt is the intra-month canary swap rates reprice with. 1-month change: +27bp · 10y gilt 5.02%
Daily history appears once the live monitor publishes.
What's coming
- Thu 30 JulMPC rate decision + Monetary Policy Report
- Fri 14 AugAWE wages (ref 2026-06)
- Mon 17 AugCPI (ref 2026-07)
Method: the forward path is computed from Bank of England OIS (SONIA) spot curve points; the live 2-year swap estimate adds the daily 5-year gilt's drift since the curve date to the last month-end 2-year OIS rate. CPI and earnings are the native ONS series; Bank Rate and daily gilt par yields come from the Bank of England database.
The honest caveat from the research behind this page: leak-free models do not beat the OIS curve at forecasting the Bank Rate — so this page reads the market's forecast rather than claiming a better one. Informational only, not financial advice.